[Tlc] FW: Cobra Gold puts the US in a pickle

[Michael Montesano]

________________________________

From: Verghese Mathews [mailto:mathews at iseas.edu.sg] 
Sent: Thursday, February 15, 2007 9:41 AM
To: researchers-at-iseas at iseas.edu.sg
Subject: Cobra Gold puts the US in a pickle

 

On Line Opinion, Australia  -  15 Feb 07 


Cobra Gold puts the US in a pickle

By John E. Carey 

The largest US-Thailand military exercise, "Cobra Gold", is the topic of
high level diplomatic and political discussions this week.

Cobra Gold is a regularly-scheduled joint-combined military exercise and
is the latest in the continuing series of US-Thai military exercises
designed to ensure regional peace and strengthen the ability of the
Royal Thai Armed Forces to defend Thailand or respond to regional
contingencies. Cobra Gold has also allowed anti-terrorism training to
flow from the US to Thailand.

Thailand has a Muslim separatist insurgency that has killed almost 2,000
people in its southern provinces.

Last September a bloodless military coup in Thailand deposed the
democratically elected government and the generals appointed their own
leadership. The US condemned the action and withheld US$24 million in
military aid from Thailand in protest to the coup.

But then the unexpected happened.

China, we are told, offered to fill the void.

The former prime minister, who lost his job in the coup, Thaksin
Shinawatra, moved his base of operations to Beijing. Mr Thaksin is a
billionaire with connections all over the world.

Then, on January 22, 2007, China hosted the Thai Army
Commander-in-Chief, the Communist People's Daily reported. "The Chinese
army would like to promote friendly relations with the Thai army,"
Chinese Defence Minister Cao Gangchuan
<http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/data/people/caogangchuan.shtml>  said
in a meeting with Thai Army Commander-in-Chief Sonthi Boonyaratkalin.

To sweeten the deal, the Chinese put on the table a special assistance
package that included US$49 million worth of military aid and training.

Beijing continued with visits to Thailand by several senior Chinese
officials, mostly in the military and security fields. State councillor
Tang Jiaxuan, a former Chinese foreign minister, will be visiting
Bangkok after Tet, the Chinese New Year. He is expected to reaffirm
Beijing's support of the Council for National Security (CNS), which is
what the coup leaders are calling themselves.

Thai Foreign Minister Nitya Pibulsonggram asked the US Department of
State for approval to visit Washington last month but was rebuffed. No
senior US diplomat has visited Thailand since the coup.

Now the United States is in something of a pickle. Going ahead with
Cobra Gold will look like the US doesn't really care if a cadre of
generals overthrows an elected prime minister in an allied government.
But to cancel Cobra Gold may push Thailand further away from the US and
closer to China.

Yet there is some precedent for the US to look the other way when
democracy isn't likely. Both President Bush and Vice President Cheney
have gone out of their way to praise President (and General) Pervez
Musharraf of Pakistan for his war against terror efforts. And just this
week, the new US Secretary of Defense, Mr Robert Gates, made a last
minute change to his schedule to visit President Musharraf in Pakistan
to again show US support and to discuss the war against terror.

Musharraf took power in Pakistan on October 12, 1999 after a coup d'etat
ousted Nawaz Sharif, the democratically elected Prime Minister of
Pakistan. Musharraf assumed for himself the title of President on June
20, 2001. Each year Musharraf says he is just a few years away from
restoring democracy.

Before the coup last September, Thailand was one of five countries in
the Pacific region with which the US had a functioning security
alliance. The other four countries are Japan, the Republic of Korea,
Australia, and the Republic of the Philippines. Thailand and the US had
an extensive bilateral military exercise program.

Kavi Chongkittavorn, the executive editor of Bangkok's leading English
language newspaper, the nation, wrote for the February 12, 2007 edition:

The coup's aftermath and the latest Thai decision to produce copycat
licensed drugs along with subsequent negotiated compromises, not to
mention the unfinished Free Trade Agreement, have already turned off
some Washington decision makers. They are the same people who follow
Thailand's abuse of Karen and Hmong refugees and the country's attempt
to forcibly repatriate them. Thaksin Shinawatra's hiring of James
Baker's law firm to lobby the Congress and the US government to advocate
for his return to power will also increase anti-American sentiment over
here.

In the coming days the US has a critical decision. It must go ahead with
Cobra Gold or a scaled down co-operative military event with Thailand.
Or it can punish Thailand by cancelling the event; which may push
Thailand further into China's sphere of influence.

Wantanee in Thailand contributed to this report.

First published in Peace and Freedom
<http://johnib.wordpress.com/2007/02/11/key-decision-this-week-for-the-u
s-on-thailand/>  on February 11, 2007. 

John E. Carey has been a military analyst for 30 years.

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