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<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=2
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'> Verghese Mathews
[mailto:mathews@iseas.edu.sg] <br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Thursday, February 15, 2007
9:41 AM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b>
researchers-at-iseas@iseas.edu.sg<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> Cobra Gold puts the <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> in a pickle</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><strong><b><font size=2 color="#ff3300" face=Verdana><span
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- 15 Feb 07</span></font></b></strong><font size=2 color="#ff3300"
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<h1><b><font size=2 color="#ff3300" face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;color:#FF3300'>Cobra Gold puts the <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> in a pickle</span></font></b><font
face=Verdana><span style='font-family:Verdana'><o:p></o:p></span></font></h1>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'>By </span></font><a href="author.asp?id=4384"
target=blank><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'>John E. Carey</span></font></a> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>The
largest US-Thailand military exercise, "Cobra Gold", is the topic of
high level diplomatic and political discussions this week.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>Cobra
Gold is a regularly-scheduled joint-combined military exercise and is the
latest in the continuing series of US-Thai military exercises designed to
ensure regional peace and strengthen the ability of the Royal Thai Armed Forces
to defend <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Thailand</st1:place></st1:country-region>
or respond to regional contingencies. Cobra Gold has also allowed
anti-terrorism training to flow from the <st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region>
to <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Thailand</st1:place></st1:country-region>.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on"><font size=2
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>Thailand</span></font></st1:place></st1:country-region><font
size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'> has a
Muslim separatist insurgency that has killed almost 2,000 people in its
southern provinces.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>Last
September a bloodless military coup in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Thailand</st1:place></st1:country-region> deposed the democratically
elected government and the generals appointed their own leadership. The <st1:country-region
w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> condemned the action and withheld US$24
million in military aid from <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Thailand</st1:place></st1:country-region>
in protest to the coup.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>But
then the unexpected happened.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on"><font size=2
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>China</span></font></st1:place></st1:country-region><font
size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>, we are
told, offered to fill the void.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>The
former prime minister, who lost his job in the coup, Thaksin Shinawatra, moved
his base of operations to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Beijing</st1:place></st1:City>.
Mr Thaksin is a billionaire with connections all over the world.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>Then,
on January 22, 2007, <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">China</st1:place></st1:country-region>
hosted the Thai Army Commander-in-Chief, the <em><i><font face=Verdana><span
style='font-family:Verdana'>Communist People's Daily</span></font></i></em>
reported. "The Chinese army would like to promote friendly relations with
the Thai army," Chinese Defence Minister <a
href="http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/data/people/caogangchuan.shtml"
target="_blank">Cao Gangchuan</a> said in a meeting with Thai Army
Commander-in-Chief Sonthi Boonyaratkalin.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>To
sweeten the deal, the Chinese put on the table a special assistance package
that included US$49 million worth of military aid and training.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><st1:City w:st="on"><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'>Beijing</span></font></st1:City><font size=2
face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'> continued with
visits to <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Thailand</st1:place></st1:country-region>
by several senior Chinese officials, mostly in the military and security
fields. State councillor Tang Jiaxuan, a former Chinese foreign minister, will
be visiting <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Bangkok</st1:place></st1:City>
after Tet, the Chinese New Year. He is expected to reaffirm <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Beijing</st1:place></st1:City>'s support of the Council for National
Security (CNS), which is what the coup leaders are calling themselves.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>Thai
Foreign Minister Nitya Pibulsonggram asked the US Department of State for
approval to visit <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Washington</st1:place></st1:State>
last month but was rebuffed. No senior <st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region>
diplomat has visited <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Thailand</st1:place></st1:country-region>
since the coup.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><u><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>Now
the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">United States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
is in something of a pickle. Going ahead with Cobra Gold will look like the <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> doesn't
really care if a cadre of generals overthrows an elected prime minister in an
allied government. But to cancel Cobra Gold may push <st1:country-region w:st="on">Thailand</st1:country-region>
further away from the <st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> and
closer to <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">China</st1:place></st1:country-region>.</span></font></u><font
size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><u><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>Yet
there is some precedent for the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region>
to look the other way when democracy isn't likely.</span></font></u><font
size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'> Both
President Bush and Vice President Cheney have gone out of their way to praise
President (and General) Pervez Musharraf of <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Pakistan</st1:place></st1:country-region> for his war against terror
efforts. And just this week, the new <st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region>
Secretary of Defense, Mr Robert Gates, made a last minute change to his
schedule to visit President Musharraf in <st1:country-region w:st="on">Pakistan</st1:country-region>
to again show <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region>
support and to discuss the war against terror.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>Musharraf
took power in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Pakistan</st1:place></st1:country-region>
on October 12, 1999 after a coup d'etat ousted Nawaz Sharif, the democratically
elected Prime Minister of Pakistan. Musharraf assumed for himself the title of
President on June 20, 2001. Each year Musharraf says he is just a few years
away from restoring democracy.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>Before
the coup last September, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Thailand</st1:country-region>
was one of five countries in the Pacific region with which the <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> had a
functioning security alliance. The other four countries are <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Japan</st1:country-region>, the <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Republic</st1:PlaceType>
of <st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Korea</st1:PlaceName>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Australia</st1:country-region>,
and the Republic of the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Philippines</st1:place></st1:country-region>.
<st1:country-region w:st="on">Thailand</st1:country-region> and the <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> had an
extensive bilateral military exercise program.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>Kavi
Chongkittavorn, the executive editor of <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Bangkok</st1:place></st1:City>'s
leading English language newspaper, the nation, wrote for the February 12, 2007
edition:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><em><i><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Verdana'>The coup's aftermath and the latest Thai decision to produce copycat
licensed drugs along with subsequent negotiated compromises, not to mention the
unfinished Free Trade Agreement, have already turned off some Washington
decision makers. They are the same people who follow <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Thailand</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s abuse of Karen and Hmong
refugees and the country's attempt to forcibly repatriate them. Thaksin
Shinawatra's hiring of James Baker's law firm to lobby the Congress and the US
government to advocate for his return to power will also increase anti-American
sentiment over here.</span></font></i></em><font size=2 face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>In
the coming days the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region>
has a critical decision. It must go ahead with Cobra Gold or a scaled down
co-operative military event with <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Thailand</st1:place></st1:country-region>. Or it can punish <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Thailand</st1:country-region> by cancelling the event; which may push
<st1:country-region w:st="on">Thailand</st1:country-region> further into <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">China</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s sphere
of influence.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>Wantanee
in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Thailand</st1:place></st1:country-region>
contributed to this report.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=prevpub><font size=2 face=Verdana><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Verdana'>First published in <em><i><font face=Verdana><span
style='font-family:Verdana'><a
href="http://johnib.wordpress.com/2007/02/11/key-decision-this-week-for-the-us-on-thailand/"
target="_blank">Peace and Freedom</a></span></font></i></em> on February 11,
2007. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=frontnewsbottom><a name=bio></a><font size=2 face=Verdana><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Verdana'>John E. Carey has been a military
analyst for 30 years.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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