[Poscgrad] Final SSL Lunch Talk of the Quarter: Amy Kroska (Sociology), June 11, 1-2pm @INTS1113

[Social Sciences Laboratory]

Dear UCR social science community,

Thank you to everyone who attended the lunch talk today and brought such
great energy to the room. To keep that momentum rolling right into our
final event of the year, we invite you to take a breath, grab a bite, and
recharge with us for our final lunch talk of the year.

On June 11th,* Amy Kroska* and her coauthor *Tony Roberts* (joining
remotely) will be delivering a talk titled "Affective Sentiments and Voting
Behavior in the 2024 Presidential Election." We hope to see many of you
there!

*Date and Time*: June 11 (Thu), from 1pm to 2pm
*Location*: INTS 1113 or via zoom <https://ucr.zoom.us/j/8748933256>
*Speaker*: Amy Kroska (Professor of Sociology) and Tony Roberts
<https://www.libarts.colostate.edu/people/arobe003/> (Associate Professor
of Sociology at Colorado State University)
*Registration*: Please register *here* <https://forms.gle/CHUsmEs15Upta2aS8>
 by *June 5* so we can finalize the headcount and accommodate any dietary
restrictions.
[image: SSL Lunch Talk_Kroska_June11.png]
*Title*: "Affective Sentiments and Voting Behavior in the 2024 Presidential
Election."
*Abstract: *The 2024 presidential election revealed an important puzzle in
American politics, with
sociodemographic voting patterns shifting even as partisan polarization
intensified. Building on
research showing that Americans’ interpersonal networks have become
segregated by education,
income, race, and religiosity, we argue that these divisions provide the
micro foundations for
divergent political sentiment along three dimensions of meaning:
evaluation, potency, and
activity (EPA). More specifically, we propose that this divergence in
sentiments toward political
roles and candidates may explain variation in recent voting behavior by
shaping whether voters
perceive candidates as affectively suited for political roles. Drawing a
Prolific quota sample of
U.S. citizens collected between October 8th and October 21st of 2024, we
examine the Euclidean
distance between the EPA ratings of “a president” and the two major
presidential candidates
(Kamala Harris and Donald Trump) in the 2024 election to explain the voting
intentions of eight
social groups based on religious affiliation, race, education, age, gender,
income, party
affiliation, and marital status. We find that the Trump-President EPA
distance partially mediates
the voting intentions of Protestants, non-Hispanic White respondents,
Republicans, older
respondents, and married respondents, while the Harris-President EPA
distance partially
mediates the voting intentions of non-Hispanic White respondents and
Republicans. These
patterns hold net of respondents’ political ideology, partisan identity,
and state-level voting in
2020. Together, these patterns suggest that contemporary voting patterns
are partly determined
by perceptions of whether candidates affectively fit political roles.
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