[Tlc] Fwd: South

[Michael Montesano]

  Anupong's remarks may add fuel to the fire in the South
By DON PATHAN
THE NATION
Published on June 17, 2009

 For a man who is known for choosing his words carefully, Army chief General
Anupong Paochinda has over this past week sounded more like a buck private
who couldn't bribe his way out of an army draft.



Knowing that tension would be high in the aftermath of the massacre of 11
Muslims attending an evening prayer at a village mosque in Narathiwat's Joh
I Rong district, Anupong concluded prematurely that it was the work of
insurgents.

He, along with deputy premier Suthep Thaugsuban, the so-called security
tzar, was dispatched to the deep South immediately after the massacre at the
Al Pukon mosque in Narathiwat's Joh I Rong district.

Instead of buying more time and looking for ways to ease the tension, the
two security bigwigs made things worse. They prematurely dismissed any
suggestion that the attackers could be anybody else other than Malay Muslim
insurgents.

For local Muslims, their position drove in a bigger wedge between their
community and the rest of the country. Few thought the mistrust could go any
lower after a controversial court ruling on May 29 that cleared security
officials of the Tak Bai massacre of 2004.

Sunai Phasuk of Human Rights Watch noted a worrying trend over the past five
years that has seen rogue elements in the volunteer and regular security
units attacking mosque, Islamic schools and teashops in retaliation for the
killings of Buddhist officials and civilians.

"This is a worrying trend that has fuelled communal tension and worsened the
conflict in the South over the past five years," Sunai said. "The widespread
suspicion in the Muslim community after the Al Pukon mosque massacre shows
how the failure to hold the perpetrators accountable has led to deep
distrust of the government," Sunai added.

While it may have crossed their minds that the massacre could have been the
work of some rogue outfit, retaliating for a week-long mayhem that included
brutal killings, beheadings, car bombs and an attack on a passenger bus full
of Buddhists, Suthep and Anupong just did not want to confront other
possibilities. Embracing old habits could be comforting.

If anything, the position taken by the two men became a much-needed comfort
zone for officials who did not want to debate why a group of Malay Muslim
insurgents would want to indiscriminately gun down people from an area where
they probably received the most support.

In spite of a track record of abuses and extra-judicial killings, it is
still unthinkable for the country's top political leaders to come to terms
with the notion that one of their own may have committed such a thing.

Some of the security spin-doctors reiterated this half-baked but
long-standing explanation that blamed the insurgents for all the atrocities
because they want to raise the profile of the issue and draw the attention
of the international community, such as the UN and the Organisation of
Islamic Conference (OIC). Killing their own people was supposed to be the
best way of attracting international sympathy.

In Bangkok, Prime Minister* Abhisit Vejjajiva
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*saw the deep South drifting further away from the kingdom, and tried to do
some damage control.

He warned against reaching premature conclusions and added that "an attack
on a mosque is unusual and not the style of separatists".

For the militants, it was payback time. Assoc Professor Srisompob
Jitpiromsri of the Prince of Songkhla University in Pattani said the clock
could be turned back to the scale of the violence in 2007 when collateral
damage was also high - 164 public schools came under arson attack, a big
jump from 43 in 2006.

Naturally, the security agencies take credit for the significant drop in
2008 that saw only 14 public schools coming under arson attacks.

But local residents say the real reason has more to do with the fact that
the insurgents are losing support at the grass-roots level. In spite of the
historical mistrust and dislike of state institutions, such as public
school, essentially, a Siamese education for their children is better than
no education at all, they said.

In spite of the unprecedented nature of these past two weeks, few want to
make the connection between the spike in violence and the court verdict on
May 29 that cleared soldiers, police and paramilitary rangers involved in
dealing with the Tak Bai protest. The incident ended in the death of 85
Malay Muslims protesters, 78 from suffocation when they were stacked one on
top of another, up to four, on the back of military trucks.

What complicated the situation further was that local media only picked up
on Anupong's statement about not negotiating with the separatists. Few noted
that the statement contradicted Abhisit who did not rule out the idea of
talking to separatists.

What Abhisit said was that at the policy level the government does not have
such a position but added that at the operational level a channel of
communication with separatist groups is already in place.

But keeping the dialogue at the operation level may not be enough as
security and intelligence personnel don't have the political will to go
further than collect data and go after insurgents and kill them.

A number of professional mediators, including retired military top brass
familiar with insurgency in the deep South and neighbouring countries, have
been knocking on Abhisit's door asking him for permission to do the
mediating job.

So far, Abhisit has not given anybody the much-sought-after mandate. Given
the uncertain nature of the current political situation, as well as the fact
that such a move will be costly in political terms, it may be a very long
time before Abhisit puts all his eggs in anybody's basket.

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