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[Michael Montesano]

   *BURNING ISSUE*
 Reasons why Thailand can't push Burma too far
By Supalak Ganjanakhundee
The Nation
Published on June 11, 2009



 There are at least four reasons why Thailand is not able to push Burma's
political development toward democracy and national reconciliation, as well
as to free opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

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First, the current government led by the* Democrat Party
<http://www.nationmultimedia.com/search/adsearch.php?keyword=+Democrat+Party+>
*has no record of civilian supremacy, not to mention democracy and
reconciliation. The Thai government is not comfortable commenting on any
military run government since it obtained help from military top brass to
form its own coalition. Prime Minister* Abhisit Vejjajiva
<http://www.nationmultimedia.com/search/adsearch.php?keyword=+Abhisit+Vejjajiva+>
*knows very well how much he owes the commanders.

 People in this country love to call on the military to intervene whenever
they have problems with civilian government. The latest military coup d'etat
happened only three years ago.

The Thai military junta dissolved at the end of 2007. Nobody in this country
could say the military has no influence in politics, notably over this
current government.
So-called national reconciliation is a political term this government might
not be able to spell out. As long as it cannot reconcile the red- and
yellow-shirted movements, it's better to have no comment about the even
worse national division in Burma.

Disunity in that country is deeper than in Thailand, absolutely. It is not
just a matter of political difference, but also a problem of race. Second,
Thai elites - notably those in power - have no clear vision about future
opposition and dissident groups. They have no more faith in the opposition's
fighting against the Burmese junta.

It seems the Thai elite jump to the conclusion the opposition, and even the
rebellious ethnic minorities Thailand uses as a buffer, have a very slim
chance of defeating the Tatmadaw [Burmese military].
Foreign Minister* Kasit Piromya
<http://www.nationmultimedia.com/search/adsearch.php?keyword=+Kasit+Piromya+>
*has talked to ethnic minorities along the Thai border several times over
past months since he took the position, to convince them to turn themselves
into the junta's fold.

The move is most helpful for the junta but weakens the dissidents. Very few
Thais connect strongly with Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for
Democracy. Some female members of the ruling* Democrat Party
<http://www.nationmultimedia.com/search/adsearch.php?keyword=+Democrat+Party+>
*and SEA Write-award winning author Jiranan Pitpreecha met Suu Kyi more than
a decade ago.

Thammasat University conferred an honorary doctorate degree on her when she
turned 60, but such a link is very slim. No strong pressure group could
force the Thai government to help her.
Third, the Thai economy relies too much on resources from Burma. The
government, every government, would never dare challenge the junta. Making
Burma angry might cause trouble in business.
Thailand could not join any economic sanctions to pressure the junta since
they would pose a direct challenge to its own economy. The jewellery
industry, for example, suffered from the US's Tom Lantos Block Burmese Jade
Act of 2008, since it stifled imports from any country of gems and jewellery
containing Burmese raw material.
Rubies and other Burmese gemstones account for about 20 per cent of raw
materials for the Thai jewellery industry. Exports of gems and jewellery to
the US dropped sharply in the last quarter of 2008 when the Act was enforced
in October. Exports to the US contracted 35.19 per cent between October and
December last year, according to Ministry of Commerce data.
Besides gemstones, Thailand is buying via pipeline more than a billion cubic
feet of gas a day from Burma's Yadana and Yedagun gas fields, accounting for
some 20 per cent of total consumption in this country. Fourth, Thailand has
the burden of proximity as it shares more than 2,200 kilometres of border
with Burma.

The borders shelter problems ranging from smuggling and trafficking to
political conflict. The junta knows how to use border issues to mount
pressure on Bangkok.
Burma's military offensive against the Karen National Union over past weeks
caused at least 3,000 people to flee to Thailand, home already to 111,000
displaced persons from Burma.
The operation coincided with the Thai* Asean
<http://www.nationmultimedia.com/search/adsearch.php?keyword=+Asean+>*Chairman's
statement on Aung San Suu Kyi.
As long as this country fails to overcome these obstacles, it will find it
very difficult in lending a hand to save Aung San Suu Kyi.
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