[Tlc] T-politics

[justinm at ucr.edu]

Forwarded from Al Valentine.
Thanks,
justin

Here is an input from Stratfor.

Al

PS-If not familiar with Stratfor, here is something about them:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratfor

http://www.stratfor.com/about_stratfor 
 

    From:
    Sent: 1/7/2009 4:08:19 A.M. Eastern Standard Time
    Subj: Thailand: ASEAN and Domestic Unrest
     
    Thailand: ASEAN and Domestic Unrest
    Stratfor Today » January 6, 2009 | 2058 GMT
    Thai
    PORNCHAI KITTIWONGSAKUL/AFP/Getty Images
    Members of Thailand's Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship protesting in Bangkok on Dec. 28, 2008
    Related Special Topic Page

        * Political Economy and the Financial Crisis

    Thailand's Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship (DAAD), the so-called Red Shirts who support former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, promised Jan. 6 to disrupt a Feb. 13-15 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit.

    Thailand's persistent political tumult, now coming during a time of global economic crisis, is making other key ASEAN members impatient and hence more willing to proceed with regional economic initiatives without Thailand.

    The Thai government saw a change in December 2008 when the Southeast Asian country's Constitutional Court banned the pro-Thaksin ruling party after 10 months of large-scaled protests in Bangkok by the opposition Democrats. But since then, the Democrat Party took power, and now Red-wearing supporters of the former government are lodging protests of their own. Like the Democratic protesters of 2008, the Red Shirts have targeted the ASEAN summit because it is a high-profile event set to take place in Thailand, which they hope to exploit to force new elections.

    The upcoming 14th ASEAN summit already has had a tough time. Originally scheduled for December in Bangkok, social unrest in the Thai capital caused officials to move the event far up river from the capital to Chiang Mai. But Thailand's social and political turmoil worsened in the meantime, and ultimately Bangkok suggested that the foreign ministers of ASEAN members (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam) resort to an impromptu meeting in Jakarta to present the much-hyped ASEAN charter that transforms the group into a legal entity and defines its free-trade goals. After debating other dates, members rescheduled the full summit for February, and agreed to keep it in Thailand after the assurances from the country's new Democratic leadership.

    During normal times a delayed ASEAN summit would be an embarrassment to the host, but not geopolitically relevant. During a financial and economic crisis, however, the importance of the ASEAN summit increases. This is because it is one of the few venues of discussion and cooperation when countries are most inclined to slight each other in pursuit of their individual interests.

    If the new government in Bangkok cannot take control, other ASEAN states will seek to dodge Thailand and hold meetings among themselves. Cambodia, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia already have demonstrated a willingness to work around Thailand (and the latter three make up the bulk of Thailand's inter-ASEAN trade).

    While the group formally is committed to full equality among members, promising not to interfere in each other's internal affairs, the seemingly interminable interruptions from Thailand are trying its patience. In December, six members (including the aforementioned) signed three deals covering trade, investment and services, while Thailand, the Philippines and Myanmar were left to catch up. Overall, member states are growing frustrated with ASEAN's inability to act as a unit when it most needs to — and Thailand is increasingly part of the problem rather than the solution.
    Tell Stratfor What You Think


______________
Dr. Justin McDaniel
Dept. of Religious Studies
3046 INTN
University of California, Riverside
Riverside, CA 92521
951-827-4530
justinm at ucr.edu