[Tlc] T-economics

[justinm at ucr.edu]

Forwarded from a member.
Thanks,
justin


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123974483092118257.html
> The Real Thai Crisis
> The Wall Street Journal Europe (Belgium)
> [Op-Ed]
> Bertil Lintner
> 04/15/2009
> 
> Songkran, the traditional Thai New Year which falls in mid-April, is usually a
> joyous event when people splash water on each other and dance in the streets.
> This year, however, it will go down in history as the "black songkran" -- and
> a black day for Thailand's fragile democracy. That's because this crisis is
> fundamentally different from the country's previous uprisings, and potentially
> more damaging.
> 
> Superficially the scenes may look similar to past riots, only more violent.
> "Red shirt" protesters loyal to ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra
> disrupted an important regional meeting at a hotel in the beach resort of
> Pattaya last weekend, hurling Molotov cocktails at the police and the army,
> and blocking roads and intersections not only in Bangkok but also at several
> provincial centers upcountry. They demanded the resignation of Prime Minister
> Abhisit Vejjajiva and new elections. After days of violence, thousands of
> protesters yesterday surrendered to military forces in Bangkok, ending their
> siege of Mr. Abhisit's office, at least for the time being.
> 
> These scenes are reminscient of October 1973, when students and others took to
> the streets of Bangkok and forced the country's then military dictators into
> exile. Three years later, the dictators returned -- resulting in a new wave of
> protests. The October 1976 demonstrations were drenched in blood, and
> thousands of pro-democracy activists fled to the jungle where they swelled the
> ranks of the insurgent Communist Party of Thailand. In April and May of 1992,
> hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets again -- this time to
> protest the appointment of an unelected general, Suchinda Kraprayoon, as prime
> minister. Scores were killed when the army opened fire, but, following an
> intervention by the Thai king, Bhumibol Adulyadej, Mr. Suchinda was forced to
> resign and the demonstrations ceased.
> 
> But there are fundamental differences between those three uprisings and events
> today. The 1973, 1976 and 1992 riots were genuine antiauthoritarian uprisings
> that enjoyed broad popular support. That is not the case today. Never before
> have demonstrators resorted to methods which greatly inconvenienced the
> public, such as blocking roads. (Not surprisingly, there were several
> incidents of angry residents attacking the protesters.) It is doubtful whether
> the demonstrators, who may genuinely believe they are fighting for democracy,
> realize that they are little more than pawns in a bigger game.
> 
> The Thai imbroglio is often described as a battle between "the traditional
> urban elite," represented by the urban middle class, the military and the
> bureaucracy, and the "rural poor" whose interests Mr. Thaksin purportedly
> represents. This is a very simplistic way of looking at Thailand's problems.
> Political parties founded by or allied with Mr. Thaksin may have won all the
> elections they participated in, but that does not mean that they adhered to
> democratic rules once in power. Mr. Thaksin tried to muzzle the media and
> silence his critics.
> 
> It is also often forgotten that Mr. Thaksin is a multibillionaire who
> primarily represents Sino-Thai business interests, not poor farmers. While in
> power, he cleverly marketed his rural development policies including cheap
> health care, generous monetary support to rural communities and other populist
> schemes. Those policies won him many votes in the impoverished north and the
> northeast. There is no doubt that many of the protesters support Mr. Thaksin
> because they feel that, for the first time, someone paid attention to their
> marginalized sector of society.
> 
> The present crisis is thus more correctly understood as a clash between two
> elites: "old money" in the hands of Thailand's traditional plutocracy, and
> "new money" which has risen to prominence since the country's economy began to
> surge in the 1960s. The Shinawatra family belongs to the latter, having made a
> fortune from what once was a virtual monopoly on the telecommunications
> sector. The former clearly saw their positions -- and the institutions they
> were loyal to, such as the monarchy -- threatened by the rise of this nouveau
> riche group. Last year, people dressed in yellow shirts fought battles for the
> old elite, who now support Mr. Abhisit. This time, those in red shirts are
> fighting for the new elite, represented by Mr. Thaksin.
> 
> With yesterday's surrender, a semblance of normality has now returned to
> Thailand, but the underlying issues that caused the confrontation in the first
> place have not been solved. Thailand's new wealth is unevenly distributed. The
> country has one of the highest Gini coefficients in Asia -- and low income
> mobility. The problem has been compounded by the global economic downturn,
> which has hit Thailand hard, raising domestic tensions. Standard & Poor's cut
> Thailand's credit rating yesterday, citing "the latest deterioration in the
> Thai political situation."
> 
> If this continues, populists like Mr. Thaksin will be able to ride on a wave
> of social discontent and Thailand will remain a political tinderbox. Violence
> could erupt again. The anger many people feel is deeper now than during the
> last wave of protests that turned violent because economic expectations are
> higher and social divisions more severe.
> 
> Whatever the outcome of the present crisis, the future of Thai democracy
> doesn't look good. In fact, a country that only a few years ago was seen as a
> pillar of economic and political stability risks becoming a failed state. This
> frightening scenario can only be thwarted if Thailand gets solid, independent
> state institutions that can handle a crisis like this one -- and bridge the
> gap between various elites as well as society's rich and poor.
> 
> ---
> 
> Mr. Lintner is a Thailand-based correspondent for the Swedish daily Svenska
> Dagbladet and a contributor to Jane's Information Group. 

______________
Dr. Justin McDaniel
Dept. of Religious Studies
3046 INTN
University of California, Riverside
Riverside, CA 92521
951-827-4530
justinm at ucr.edu