[Tlc] T-politics article

[justinm at ucr.edu]

FYI. A new article by Dr. Michael Montesano.
Thanks,
justin

28 November 2008
 
THAI POLITICS: From hopes to ashes
 
Michael J. Montesano, for THE STRAITS TIMES
 
 
THAILAND'S long-reigning King Bhumibol Adulyadej presided over the cremation of his sister, Princess Galyani Vadhana, about two weeks ago. The ritual drew thousands of spectators from across the country. It epitomised the post-1957 return of monarchy, with its attendant ceremony, to the centre of national life.

Set among temples dating from the early Chakri dynasty in the first half of the 19th century, the purpose-built crematorium for Princess Galyani evoked 'Old Siam' with all its exotic appeal. The rites also recalled similar ceremonies held for two other female members of Thailand's royal family.

The April 1985 cremation of Queen Rambhai Barni - the widow of Thailand's last absolute monarch, Rama VII - occurred five years into the successful eight-year premiership of General Prem Tinsulanond. His premiership witnessed the controlled opening-up of the Thai political order. Under the guidance of a network of figures close to the King, Thailand substituted parliamentary manoeuvres for coups d'etats. Observers saw reason for cautious optimism about the country's political progress.

Eleven years later, in March 1996, King Bhumibol presided over the rites for the cremation of his mother, the widow of King Chulalongkorn's physician-son, Prince Mahidol. The 1997-98 financial crisis then largely unanticipated, those rites unfolded in a Thailand that was already 10 years into a sustained economic boom that had made Thais richer than they had ever been in their history. This and the consignment of the February 1991 coup as well as the violent protests of May 1992 to history, made many Thais confident about the robustness of the political system.

It is hard to reflect on the most recent cremation without judging that earlier confidence premature. Instead of the encouraging trends of April 1985 and March 1996, the discouraging developments of the past few months have scarred the Thai political landscape.

For more than two months now, the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) has occupied the seat of Thai government with impunity. This week, the group took over Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport, leading to the cancellation of flights to and from the country and greatly compounding Thailand's crisis. Seemingly intent on bullying Thailand into accepting a new political order, the PAD has gone so far as to assault the national police.

Its tactics have alarming implications. Students of comparative history would do well to recall that while the Italian monarchy survived the rise of a regime that bullied its way to power in the early 1920s, it did not long survive the fall of that regime two decades later. For any section of Bangkok's elite to consider the PAD a mere tool to be used and later discarded would be to play a very dangerous game.

Meanwhile, hatred for former premier Thaksin Shinawatra among some royalists and other Thais has grown so malignant as to risk the deformation of the country's judicial system into a political weapon. Should this risk be realised, trust in Thailand's legal institutions will take many years to restore. Informed observers in Bangkok suggest that army commander Anuphong Paochinda, concerned by the lack of a realistic exit strategy and mindful of the interests of his own institution, has resisted suggestions to mount Thailand's second coup in as many years.

The current leadership of the historically liberal Democrat Party has shown no such concern for the well-being and repute of the institution they lead. Rather, the leaders seem to have thrown in their lot with the PAD. By endorsing the PAD's unvarnished bigotry towards Thailand's less affluent majority, Democrat leaders appear determined to scuttle their own future electoral prospects.

There is a growing perception among Thais that members of the old elite do not realise that the old fixes no longer work. Quiet conversation and backroom deals among a select few will no longer suffice to overcome the nation's many problems. In the meantime, debates on Thai online forums, unsafe for the mainstream media to detail, draw thousands into spirited discussions about the country's leading personalities and institutions. These debates are alternately shocking in their vitriol and breathtaking in the willingness of participants to contemplate the previously unimaginable.

The once unimaginable has not remained in the sphere of speculation. Thaksin, for example, used his Nov 1 'phone-in' to a huge rally of his supporters to issue a naked threat to Thailand's established order. If royal mercy did not permit his return from exile, he remarked, the power of the people might achieve the same. His remarks were in effect an incitement to contemplate revolution, even if many Thais have understandably been reluctant to acknowledge them as such.

Press coverage of the grand cremation of Princess Galyani made little mention of King Bhumibol's decision, on the occasion of her 72nd birthday in 1995, to make her Princess of Narathiwat. This gesture symbolised the Chakri dynasty's determination to associate itself with Thailand's Malay-Muslim southern border provinces and its commitment to the indivisibility of the country. The passing of the Princess of Narathiwat ought to remind us of the strains on that commitment, in the form of ongoing insurgency in the Yala, Pattani, Narathiwat and Songkhla provinces. These strains - together with the global economic crisis, the threat of rising unemployment, falling crop prices and PAD's alarming anti-democratic campaign - are worrisome factors distinguishing the Thailand of 2008 from that of 1985 and 1996.

The writer is a visiting research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

______________
Dr. Justin McDaniel
Dept. of Religious Studies
3046 INTN
University of California, Riverside
Riverside, CA 92521
951-827-4530
justinm at ucr.edu