[Tlc] T-politics

[justinm at ucr.edu]

Forwarded from Jennifer Gampell.
Thanks,
justin

These Nation links often expire so I'm cutting and pasting two depressing articles:
 
*********************
TELL IT AS IT IS 
Can Anyone see the Thai Tutsis and Thai Hutus?
By Pornpimol Kanchanalak
Published on November 20, 2008





UP to a certain point in Rwandan history, the country's two prominent tribes, the Tutsis and Hutus, coexisted in harmony. Despite differences in lifestyle and division of labour, the two groups for several hundred years lived as one, speaking the same language, inhabiting the same areas, intermarrying, following the same traditions, and obeying the same king, a Tutsi. There were disagreements between the majority Hutus and minority Tutsis, but there was peace. 

Then came Belgian colonial rule in 1916, followed by the country's independence in 1962 and the abolition of the monarchy. Then the disagreements grew into animosity that turned violent and sadistic. Rwanda's ethnic conflict remains Africa's largest genocide of modern times. Rwanda's ethnic fault line has extended even beyond its borders and caused violence and instability in its two neighbours, Congo and Burundi. 

It was 600 years ago that the Tutsis moved south from Ethiopia and invaded the homeland of the Hutus. The Tutsis established themselves as the ruling class and the Hutus agreed to farm and raise crops in return for security. When the Belgians colonised the country, they brought to the fore the inherent but subdued disagreements between the two ethnic groups. New identity cards were used to classify people according to their ethnicity. People began to take sides and the divisive sentiments grew. Under colonial rule, the Tutsis enjoyed better jobs and education opportunities. Resentment, especially among the Hutus, grew accordingly. The growing friction between the two tribes culminated in a series of riots in 1959 in which more than 20,000 Tutsis were killed. 


In 1962 the Belgians granted Rwanda its independence. The departure of the colonial ruler and the dissolution of the monarchy left a huge political vacuum that the Tutsis and the Hutus have fought over and killed to fill ever since. 


After a plane carrying the Hutu president and his top aides, as well as the president of Burundi (also a Hutu) was shot down by a missile in 1994, the country was plunged into instant catastrophe. Genocide, butchery, retribution and counter-retribution was perpetrated by both sides, leaving over a million dead and millions more as refugees.


Linda Melvern, a British expert on the Rwanda genocide contended in a 2006 book that the killing may have been pre-planned and that the assassination was just a trigger. 


Today, Rwanda has regained a kind of uneasy political normalcy. It has a Tutsi president, Paul Kagame, an enigmatic leader whose family fled Rwanda to Congo in 1960 when he was an infant. He returned to his homeland after 30 years in exile as the triumphant head of a guerrilla army. 


Kagame has made a conscious effort to court the international community. He has assumed the role of an African leader who is willing to be involved in and take charge of the affairs of his continent. As a result, world leaders have conveniently looked elsewhere when Kagame exercises his ruthless authority to put down political threats. Such exercise extends into Congo, where Rwanda has been involved in the vicious civil war there. The Rwandan involvement is carried out in the name of "security and enhancement" - a justification that the world seems to accept gladly. Reports that Kagame's army is making millions of dollars in revenue from Congo's precious resources, such as diamonds, go largely ignored. 


Despite numerous accounts of human rights violations by the Kagame regime - such as extrajudicial killings, torture, deaths in custody and limited press freedom - the West seems to love the president who managed to put down ethnic violence and who takes an active role in re-establishing some kind of order on the continent the world wants to forget, but whose value has been recently rediscovered by the Chinese. 


Kagame has received numerous awards and honorary degrees from prestigious organisations and renowned universities in the West and around the world. He rubs shoulders with world leaders and was received by President Bush in the Oval Office. 


The tragic history of Rwanda and the struggle to maintain the fragile yet costly internal political truce should serve as a lesson that the path of hatred leads nowhere but to a calamitous nightmare. 


We Thais are now divided into our own Tutsi and Hutu camps. The animosity appears to have grown too deep and is beyond any rational remedy. We are heading towards a point of no return. Increasingly, the country appears doomed. 


The seat and symbol of our political system, the Government House, is no longer the place from which our country is run. It is not only that the physical building and its vicinity has been violated; it is the crushing defeat of the spirit of democracy, respect for the rule of law, and harmonious coexistence commonly known as unity despite differences. 


Some may say that the takeover was justified and inevitable, as it was the end result of having a government that had severely abused its authority and power while in office. For whatever reason this came to be, the fact remains that ours is an abnormal political situation. 


Our Tutsis and Hutus have leaders who are prepared to go for broke, to fight the "Last War" - the one that ends all wars. On one side we have the publicly professed goal of protecting the institution of democracy, whose meaning is lost upon many of us. On the other side, we have a stigmatised, intelligent, versatile and resource-rich figure who says his back is against the wall and will use any means, and go to any lengths, to restore his "dignity", and in the process get back assets which he believes are rightfully his. 


Both leaders have followers, many of whom genuinely believe in the righteousness of their respective paths. Vindictiveness replaces our usual give-and-take attitude. Fierce disagreements erupt, even within families and among close associates and friends - because everybody seems to be taking sides. More people who used to sit on the fence are abandoning their comfort zone and jumping into the fray. War has been declared. 


Rwanda in recent years has shown the world the extraordinary lengths to which people are prepared to go to gain and hold on to power, and the result has been catastrophic. If Thais cannot learn from this lesson and continue on this unyielding path of hatred, we will face a self-fulfilling prophecy, one that has been whispered often these days. 


There will be blood.

 

***********************************

OVEDRIVE 
More violence on the cards as political tensions heighten
By Thanong Khanthong
The Nation
Published on November 21, 2008




 

AT 3:25am on Thursday morning, a bomb was thrown into the Government House compound, killing one person and injuring dozens of members of the People's Alliance for Democracy. The bomb exploded a day after the completion of the royal cremation ceremony for HRH Princess Galyani Vadhana.

It's official now. The declaration of civil war begins with that bomb. The crisis will continue around the Government House, where the PAD has fortified its position over the past 180 days, rallying for the removal of the Thaksin regime. At night ordinary people do not want to go near the Government House because they fear injury or death from random shooting and missiles.


With his back against the wall, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra can no longer run. He does not know where to go. He faces a two-year jail term. The UK has denied him a visa, dealing a blow to his international standing. He says he will fight back, an eye for an eye.


"Even if I retreat, even if I give in, they will still kill me. It has been proved that no matter how much I retreat, they will still not give me the space to stand. Retreating will not help improve my situation at all. So I have to fight back," Thaksin told a group of the People Power Party MPs, who visited him in Hong Kong over the weekend.


His aim is to return to Thailand and get back his Bt76 billion, now frozen, pending a trial on corruption charges against him. To succeed, Thaksin must prevail in politics through a sort of a revolution, because the law can't be changed to give him amnesty.


Thaksin has divorced his wife of 32 years, Pojaman, but this is a tactical move. She can keep her wealth. His three children are already grown up. Matichon newspaper yesterday speculated that after the division of wealth with Pojaman, Thaksin has Bt10 billion in his war chest to finance his comeback. Pojaman might fly back to Thailand first to pave the way for his return. She has been known to be a keen deal-maker. At the moment, Thaksin still trusts her the most. 


Both the PAD and the People Power Party smell blood. The final clash is inevitable. Thaksin is not afraid of anybody. How do his opponents feel then?


Chamlong Srimuang, one of the leaders of the PAD, senses that the PAD is also being driven into a corner. He has declared a last-ditch effort on November 23 when the PAD protesters will hold an all-out rally to remove the government.


The military remains cool. But we'll probably see the red shirt mob and yellow shirt mob going against each other. Who will have more mettle? We can only wait and see.


The military will call the final shot. It will act only when it knows which side emerges victorious.


Thaksin will phone in to his supporters at the National Stadium on December 13, when Thailand is about to play host to the Asean Summit in Chiang Mai. Thaksin would love to send his message to the regional leaders. This time he has promised that he will not be considerate or reserved. He will tell it all - those who were behind the military coup in 2006.


In December, a hearing on Thaksin's "unusually rich" case will begin. A verdict on the dissolution case against the People Power Party might also be reached. It is a ripe time for political turmoil. By that time, all conflicting parties can no longer hide in the shadows. We'll know who's wearing yellow and who's wearing red.


The final scene, as overseen by the big shots of the People Power Party, will produce one of two outcomes. First, there will be bloodshed, which will lead to a political compromise (Thaksin gets part of his money back; he has a room to move on Thai soil). Second, there will be bloodshed, which leads to the complete rout of one of the two sides. Either way, bloodshed is imminent.


PPP MP Pracha Prasopdee yesterday hinted to a way out. He said either Thaksin or Pojaman might return from exile on or before December 25. Thaksin will make a big bet by going straight to jail. But his supporters will rally for his release. If the country is to overcome its predicament, all sides should support the passage of legislation granting amnesty to rival camps, Pracha said, arguing that the draft legislation should be on the fast track for debate at the next House session in January. The amnesty would allow a fresh start for all sides, including the People's Alliance for Democracy, and is the only hope to overcome the turmoil.


Thaksin, in short, would like to move the clock back to September 18, 2006 before the coup took place. He has played his cards. How will his opponents answer?



______________
Dr. Justin McDaniel
Dept. of Religious Studies
3046 INTN
University of California, Riverside
Riverside, CA 92521
951-827-4530
justinm at ucr.edu