[Tlc] L-river and dam

[justinm at ucr.edu]

FYI.
Thanks,
justin



2008-0321 - Far Eastern Economic Review - Slowly up the Mekong

http://www.feer.com/jaunt-through-asia/2007/january/slowly-up-the-mekong

March 2008
Vol. 171 No. 2

Home » Jaunt Through Asia » Slowly up the Mekong

January 2007

Slowly up the Mekong
by Colum Murphy

Early on a foggy, cold morning in late December, we embark
from the old royal city of Luang Prabang in central Laos. Our
destination is Houeisay, a small town on the border with
Thailand, some 250 kilometers to the northwest.

If the Lao government's ambitious plans for the Mekong come to
fruition, riverside villages such as Pakbeng (above) could
undergo massive change.

No roads link the two towns. All flights are fully booked with
peak-season tourists, of which more than one million visited
the landlocked country in 2006. My travel companion and I opt
to make the trip by river barge up the Mekong River. In all,
the voyage will take almost two days to complete, with an
overnight stop at the midpoint village of Pakbeng.

On board are 13 other tourists, a cosmopolitan mix of
well-to-do folk–at $340 for the two-day ride, they would need
to be. The river is remarkably narrow at points, and the
captain ably moves the river barge from one side to the other
as he navigates his way through what seems to be an obstacle
course of hidden rocks. For most of the trip the river banks
are deserted; the occasional village is high on a hill, away
from the high water levels of the rainy season.

Some 60 million people make their livelihood along the Mekong
River, experts say. But at least along this stretch, many seem
to be in hiding. From time to time we can see scattered groups
of people panning the river for gold, or small fishing boats,
the occupants of which seem displeased that our river barge
with its noisy engine is diminishing their chances to catch
some fish. Our guide points out small plots of peanuts.

Yet the serenity of the Mekong riverbank belies major
transformations taking place behind the scenes. Laos is among
the poorest countries in Asia, and has the dubious pleasure of
qualifying for the club of the world's "Least Developed
Countries"–a status the country hopes to shed by 2020.
According to data from the Asian Development Bank, per capita
domestic product is $490. The country is home to 5.6 million
people, with nearly half the population below the age of 15.
Laos is heavily dependent on external financing. The ADB
estimates the country's public and publicly guaranteed
external debt to be $2.1 billion dollars, or roughly 83% of
GDP in 2004, much of it from multilateral lenders.

Japan is a key benefactor, consistently ranking first among
all donors (multilateral organizations included), accounting
for more than 30% of the total aid given to Laos. According to
Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, so far in fiscal 2006
(which ends March 31, 2007), Tokyo has given close to $41
million to Laos in grants–a quarter of its total grant aid to
the East Asia region.

In order to wean itself off these handouts and service its
debts, the Lao government needs to find ways to earn foreign
exchange. Many of its plans involve tapping the potential of
the Mekong and its tributaries, especially the building of
hydroelectric plants. Much of the power is exported to
neighboring countries, particularly Thailand; Bangkok has been
facing increasing citizen opposition to dam-building within
its borders ever since the public outcry in Thailand over the
Pak Mun Dam, completed in 1994.

According to the Lao National Committee for Energy, the
country currently has nine hydropower projects, with a total
installed capacity of 742 mw. This represents less than 2% of
the country's total hydropower potential. Plans call for
building more than 60 plants of varying sizes. Just counting
plants due to come online before 2013, Laos is expected to see
a more than five-fold increase in its hydropower. One of the
biggest and most contentious projects is the 1,088 mw Nam
Theun 2 hydropower plant, due to be finished in 2009.

Aviva Imhof, campaign director with California-based
International Rivers Network (IRN), doubts that money from the
hydropower plants will ever reach the poor: "The system is not
set up so that the people who are affected by the dams are
benefiting." She dismisses as "ridiculous" claims by Mekong
River Commission officials that dams' impact on the flow
pattern of the river could actually be beneficial. "The whole
ecology of the region is affected by change in flows of the
river," she says. If this happens, fishing and riverside
farming could be severely impacted.

For its part, the MRC holds up the Nam Theun 2 project as an
excellent example of an integrated approach to dam building,
one that goes beyond mere engineering to include social and
ecological components to ensure that the local population also
benefits from development. "If all the projects go the way Nam
Theun 2 did, then there should be no problem," explains Oliver
Cogels, MRC's chief executive officer, who describes
hydropower as representing a "fantastic opportunity" for the
people of Laos. And former Australian diplomat, historian and
academic Milton Osborne, who has conducted extensive research
on the problems facing the Mekong, says he also supports the
project: "Given the Laos' desperate need to do something about
ending poverty, I believe that building Nam Theun 2 is
something they should do," he says, provided it is built with
"every safeguard."

Yet even if this high-profile project is built in adherence to
the high standards agreed on by all parties, there is
considerable concern that these standards will not be imposed
on future dams. Moreover, the health of the Mekong, its
ecological system and the livelihoods of the people along the
river are not fully under the control of the Vientiane
government. Upstream, China has built a series of dams in the
past decade, and the negative affects of these could be felt
by downstream nations in years to come.

And the threat to the Mekong does not stop with hydroelectric
power. IRN's Ms. Imhof says that China has undertaken
extensive blasting of the Mekong river bed in order to improve
navigability, destroying more than 20 rapids and shoals in the
process. Should such work continue and extend within Laos as
some analysts suggest it may, then the Mekong's fish stocks
would suffer yet another blow.

Given the difficult trade-off between development and
preserving the Mekong's ecosystem, it's hard to blame the
government for exploiting every opportunity to bring money
into the country. The serenity and traditional way of life
along the river may be picturesque for visitors, but it's
telling that, by the end of the trip, the tourists on the
barge are all eager to get back to comparatively developed
Thailand by nightfall to ring in 2007.

Mr. Murphy is deputy editor of the REVIEW.
__._,_.___

______________
Dr. Justin McDaniel
Dept. of Religious Studies
2617 Humanities Building
University of California, Riverside
Riverside, CA 92521
951-827-4530
justinm at ucr.edu