[Tlc] T-Global Warming

[justinm at ucr.edu]

Forwarded from Marjorie Muecke and the Informal Northern Thai Group.
Thanks,
justin

Informal Northern Thai Group Bulletin

1 August 2008

Minutes of the 303rd meeting - Tuesday July 15th 2008

Global Warming Scenarios for Thailand

a talk and presentation by
Jere Locke, Marty Bergoffen and Julia Schonharl

Present: James A. Mackie, Bodil Blokker, Susira A. Naenna, Patricia
Cheesman, Glynn Morgan, Ricky Ward, Lyndy Worsham, Allan Young, Adrian
Pieper, Klaus Berkmuller, Carole Beauclerk, Paul Barber-Riley, Dorothy
Engmann, Joshua Monthei, John Wickenden, Rich Chapelle, Caroline
Marsh-Subkaenu, Terence Harkin, Tony Kidd, Siripan Kidd, Thomas Ohlson,
Bodge Wollingford, Oliver Hargreave, Ralph Kramer, Mo Tejani, Roshan
Dhunjibhoy, Shanya Attesillelelia, Zubin Tejani, Suriya Smutkupt, Thomas
Ruiter, Tingting Carpenter, Chris Carpenter, Sue Offner, Gilles Madrona,
Varida Mitwong, Alex Putnam. An audience of 36.

[Summaries of the talks were prepared by the speakers and your convenor.]

1. Jere Locke (jerelocke at yahoo.com) is the Outreach Coordinator with Texas
Climate Emergency Campaign, which is building coalitions of farmers,
environmentalists, religious communities, labor unions and many others to
address the challenge of global warming.

TIME FOR ACTION---OUR TIME IS RUNNING OUT

"We have at most 10 years - not 10 years to decide upon action, but 10
years to alter fundamentally the trajectory of global greenhouse
emissions." Since he said this in 2006 we now have only 8 years by his
timetable. He has argued that the earth's climate is nearing a crucial
tipping point that, if passed, would lead to "practically a different
planet." (Dr. James Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for
Space Studies)

"If there's no action before 2012, that's too late. What we do in the next
2 to 3 years will determine our future. This is the defining moment."
(Rajendra Pachauri, chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) which won the Nobel Prize with Al Gore)

The future of this beautiful, wonderful planet and all its beings will in
all likelihood be largely determined by December 2009 when the UN meets to
sign the agreement that will succeed the Kyoto Protocols in December 2012.
An essential first step in arriving at a strong UN agreement is for the US
to pass a strong, i.e. science based, bill early next year. The UN might
then be more willing to sign a science based agreement when it gathers in
Copenhagen. Without a strong US bill there is little chance the UN will
sign an agreement that meets the challenge we face.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), comprised of the
2,500 plus UN scientists who won the Nobel Prize with Al Gore, is telling
us that we have to make very significant CO2 emission cuts no later than
2015 or face catastrophic consequences. Without a strong US bill and UN
agreement we will go sailing by 2015 without a notice.
This imperative for action is also seen in recent research by Dr. James
Hansen. Before this research, Dr. Hansen along with the IPCC, all thought
that keeping CO2 atmospheric concentration levels below 450 parts per
million (ppm) was a desired goal. The world is now at 387 ppm. The
pre-industrial level was 270 ppm.
However, after researching the last time the earth was at 450 ppm for an
extended period of time, Dr. Hansen and eight colleagues now think that
safety is no higher than 350 ppm. Recently Dr. Hansen said "if humanity
wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed
and to which life on earth is adapted?? the CO2 atmospheric concentration
level will need to be reduced from its current 387 ppm to at most 350 ppm
?..If you leave us at 450 ppm for long enough it will probably melt almost
all the world's ice - that's a sea level rise of 75 meters. What we have
found is that the target we (i.e. Dr. Hansen, the IPCC, and environmental
groups) have all been aiming for is a disaster - a guaranteed disaster."
This research is posted at www.arXiv.org. Obviously Bangkok, much of which
is at or below sea level, and all the Thai coastal cities along with
coastal cities everywhere in the world would be under water. [Your Convenor
writes: In Thailand the Lower Central Plain is at an elevation of 2 metres
above sea level and the Upper Central Plain is at 20 metres above sea
level. A 75-metre rise in sea level would mean a serious curtailment to
rice production in Thailand.]
Before this recent research, the IPCC had advised us that by 2020 we must
cut our carbon emissions by 25-40% under 1990 levels. This is a somewhat
modest goal as it gives us just a 50/50 chance of avoiding a temperature
rise of 2° Celsius over pre-industrial levels, which is runaway train
territory. Many of you might want a better than 50/50 chance!
In addition to the recommendations of scientists you should know about the
tipping points. Right now global warming effects are rising gradually. Some
examples of this are the recent US floods, the Myanmar cyclone, China's
winter storm, the Australian drought and the fact that the Arctic summer
ice is reducing and will soon disappear, all very substantial events but
just part of this gradual rise. However, if we continue to ignore the
scientist's advice at some point in the very near future nature will become
a runaway train because we will have passed a point that brings on large
and abrupt changes. Just a couple of these tipping points are:
*** When the Arctic summer ice disappears. A few years ago the IPCC thought
this would happen by 2070; now they think it will happen in 5-10 years. Ice
reflects heat back into space, but open ocean water absorbs heat, adding to
the problem.
*** When the Siberian permafrost thaws it will release the equivalent in
methane gas of over 70 years of present emissions. This permafrost is
already beginning to thaw.
If we pass these tipping points one consequence will be the melting of the
Himalayan glaciers within about 40 years, thus depriving over 40% of the
world's people of more than half their water. The Chinese government has
already told its largest corporations to buy large tracts of arable land in
Africa and South America. Hedge funds and the Saudis among others are now
trying to buy land all over world that will remain arable.
Another consequence of a tipping point which we might have already passed
is Africa losing over half its food production. A recent IPCC statement
says this will happen by 2020. African people will see both their food
production halved and China and maybe other countries trying to take over
their remaining fertile land.
There is, however, room for hope as various national studies have shown us
that we can make cuts of up to 100% by 2050 with just present technology
and no nuclear power plants.
There is also hope as far as the coming US bill in that Senator Obama
supports 80% cuts by 2050, an IPCC recommendation. Even John McCain has
broken with Bush's horrendous record, although his proposed cuts aren't
adequate.
Probably even more important is that Al Gore recently came out for the US
generating 100% of its electricity with just renewables (no coal or nukes)
by 2018, just 10 years from now. The press release announcing this had a
quote from Senator Obama praising Gore for his leadership without going so
far as to agree with the 100% cut goal. However, given that Obama's quote
was probably prearranged by Gore this is a very good sign that he will be
strong on global warming if not on other issues like Iraq, Palestine, etc.
Another area of hope is that this transition to a new renewable energy
economy will create tens of millions of new jobs in a time of global
economic downturn. Every building in every city will need to be inspected,
its substandard glass replaced and its ducts wrapped with insulation, among
other improvements. Energy efficiency is the quickest and cheapest way to
get the first emission cuts. You can imagine for yourself the workforce it
will take to accomplish just this task in the area where you live.
At the same time, we will need to start the process of replacing oil and
coal with wind, solar, wave and other renewable energy sources. This new
renewable energy economy will create millions of other jobs.
We have a choice. We can either mobilize quickly like we did for WW II or
witness mounting calamities. The time for dawdling has passed. Good people
need to step forward during the coming months to help solve this challenge
or all the world's peoples face a nightmarish future.

2. Marty Bergoffen (mbergoffen at gmail.com ) then gave a PowerPoint
presentation to illustrate his talk. Marty had attended the Climate Justice
Conference at Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, on July 12-14 2008.
Climate Justice is the notion that impending climate change requires
immediate, radical action, and that these actions must minimize harm to the
most vulnerable. This includes indigenous people, women, farmers and
fishers, etc., all of whom depend upon their natural environment for
livelihoods and therefore face significant and dire threats from climate
change. Business as Usual is no longer a viable option.
The conference had over 140 people attending from around the world,
including 16 from Chiang Mai.
Topics discussed:
- Carbon Trading - allows companies to buy and sell the right to pollute
the air: Opposition to this because it provides more profits to polluters,
and allows Northern industrial countries to avoid their obligation to
reduce emissions at the expense of poorer countries.
- Forests - REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation):
Provides money to countries that are destroying forests to stop them doing
so. Opposed because it is unfair to countries like Thailand, who have
already stopped logging (in theory) and will therefore be penalized for
their forethought, while rewarding countries like Indonesia that are
rampant with logging corruption.
- Gender, Indigenous People, and Climate Justice: Women and indigenous
people are responsible for providing food, water and other livelihood
requirements, and are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts.
- International Finance Institutions: (World Bank, Asia Development Bank,
et al.): They are continuing to fund fossil fuel development, and so are
complicit in pushing climate change forward.
- International Trade (World Trade Organization): The WTO will allow
countries and companies to challenge climate change laws as barriers to
trade. This must be overcome immediately.
- Tourism: Transport, especially flying, tends to be a highly energy
intensive, so contributes to climate change. Julia will talk more about
this issue.
- India and China: Many similarities (size and development level) and
differences (democracy v. dictatorship), but both have similar outlooks on
efforts to stop climate change (US and Europe have first responsibility to
reduce emissions). Many synergies for local NGO's to explore.
- Green Development Rights: A framework for distributing costs and
obligations of emissions reductions. The US and Europe will have to pay
more because they are able to and continue to pollute most heavily.
- Coastal Communities and Fishers: Especially vulnerable to climate change,
as seen by Hurricane Nargis. Need special efforts at adaptation and
mitigation.
- Agrofuels (Industrial): Global push for agrofuels like ethanol and palm
oil is hurting food farmers. Land appropriation and forced growing of
species like jatropha are rampant.

What you can do in Chiang Mai RIGHT NOW
- Work to stop field and forest burning, especially in February-April.
- Use cars less, get rid of diesel Songthaew. Use a bicycle instead.
- Fly much less, especially to Bangkok - take a train or bus.
- Be aware of responsible tourism - Julia will have more.
- Plant Trees and Prevent deforestation (unnecessary CO2 release).
- Educate yourself and friends.
- Engage politicians and decision makers; write letters to politicians and
newspapers. This is a real crisis and demands immediate radical action. The
discussion items from the Climate Justice Conference are a good place to
start.
- Sign Up to Join Chiang Mai Climate Justice

Websites:
www.climatecrisis.net
http://www.focusweb.org/climatechange/

www.ecotonline.org

3. Julia Schonharl (julia at ecotonline.org) then talked about the adverse
impact that tourism has on climate change.
[This summary of her talk was prepared by your Convenor]
Global climate change is probably the most severe environmental threat in
the 21st Century and will affect the lives of people around the world -
access to water, food production, health and the environment. This is
currently a top issue for policymakers worldwide and tourism is fast
becoming an important element in their considerations. Climate represents a
key resource for tourism and climate related risks in the form of changing
weather patterns and extreme adverse conditions can have a serious impact
on travel patterns. The tourism industry itself, however, is a significant
contributor to climate change by generating greenhouse gas emissions
through traveler's consumption of transport services, in particular air
transport, the high per capita consumption of energy - air conditioning,
heating and lighting, poor energy efficiency - waste management, and water
consumption in tourist establishments, and the serious negative
environmental impacts. The aviation industry poses the biggest threat
because it is the fastest growing source of greenhouse gases, growing at a
rate of 5% per annum and contributing to 3% of global emissions. Long-haul
international flights emitting greenhouse gases at high cruising altitudes
add substantially to climate change effects. Air travel is a heavily
subsidized boom industry. The massive expansion and building of new
airports; in Thailand the new Suvarnabhumi Airport, and at Chiang Mai
Airport the proposed extension to the runway to accommodate bigger
aircraft, the launch and expansion of budget and short-haul airlines and
routes; Thailand has seen a rapid growth in recent years in the number of
budget airlines and new routes, and infrastructure heavy tourism projects
are celebrated as progress, at least by the companies' stockholders. Carbon
offsetting, emission trading, carbon neutral travel and green certificates
are nothing more than 'greenwash solutions' proposed by the UNWTO to
support its 'less travel is bad, business as usual' position.
The tourism industry must make an authentic response to the climate change
crisis by implementing measures to change the current forms of mass tourism
to significantly reduce the industry's climate change footprint.

Your Convenor writes: After an informative and thought provoking
presentation by the three speakers, I, and I'm sure many people in the
audience, came away with the thought that I will probably witness in my
lifetime climate changes that I'd previously thought I'd never live to see.

FUTURE MEETINGS:

- Tuesday, August 12th 2008: The Administrative Structure of Chiang Mai
Province - A talk by Ajarn Tanet Charenmang [Thanet Charoenmuang]

- Tuesday, September 9th 2008: An evening at home with John Shaw - Details
to follow.

- Tuesday, October 14th 2008: An evening at home with Patricia Cheesman -
Details to follow


INTG CONTACTS:

1) Convenor: Brian Hubbard. Email: <brihubb at loxinfo.co.th>; Tel./Fax: 053
40 94 18. Address: 106/18 Moo 2 - Potharam Road, Soi Pai di-Ma di, Chiang
Mai 50300

2) Secretary: Louis Gabaude: e-mail: <gabaudel at loxinfo.co.th>. H/O Phone:
053 11 73 19; Mob. 087 188 50 99. H/O Fax: 053 85 04 85.

3) INTG Website: http://www.intgcm.thehostserver.com


MAILING PROBLEMS:

The following address do not work and have been phased out of our mailing
list. If you know a working address for these addresses, please send it to:
<gabaudel at loxinfo.co.th>

<jad at pacific.net.hk> <mcdaniej at ohio.edu> <percyz at loxinfo.co.th>
<tracy.johnson3 at verizon.net


NEXT INTG MEETING


Tuesday, August 12th 2008 - 304rd Meeting

At the Alliance Française - Chiang Mai - 7:30 pm

"The Administrative Structure of Chiang Mai Province"

a talk by Ajarn Tanet Charenmang


Ajarn Tanet teaches politics in the Faculty of Political Science and Public
Administration, Chiang Mai University. In this presentation he will talk
about the politics and administration system in Chiang Mai. Issues that he
will discuss will include who governs, why many problems are not solved:
high rise, mass communication system, polluted air, and the conflict
between modernity and conservation in this city..


==============================================
Répondez-moi toujours savec: <gabaudel at loxinfo.co.th>
Please answer always at: <gabaudel at loxinfo.co.th>

Louis Gabaude
124/123 Soi Suraphon Niwet
San Kamphaeng Road
CHIANG MAI 50000
THAILANDE

Tel. Chiang Mai: +66 (0)53 11 73 19
Fax Chiang Mai: +66 (0)53 85 04 85
Mob. [Thailande] +66 (0)87 188 50 99
Mob. [France] +33 (0)6 16 67 21 06
e-mail: <gabaudel at loxinfo.co.th>

Ecole francaise d'Extreme-Orient:
http://www.efeo.fr/documentation/bibliothequecm.shtml

Informal Northern Thai Group: http://www.intgcm.thehostserver.com/

Aux dates suivantes, je serai en déplacement et ne pourrai peut-être
pas répondre immédiatement à vos courriels. / At the following dates,
I will be away from home and may not be able to answer your mails
right away:

05/10 > 08/10/2008 : Paris
09/10 > 11/10/2008 : Leeds
12/10 > 14/10/2008 : Paris
15/10 > 20/12/2008 : Hamburg
23/12/2008 > 07/01/2009: France
20?/04/2009 > 30?/04/2009: France
______________
Dr. Justin McDaniel
Dept. of Religious Studies
3046 INTN
University of California, Riverside
Riverside, CA 92521
951-827-4530
justinm at ucr.edu