[Tlc] Nation summary article

[justinm at ucr.edu]

For those who did not see this article, but are interested in
a little overview of the State of Thai politics (from a
general, and one-sided, perspective), please see below. This
was submitted by a member in Thailand.
Best,
justin

SIX MONTHS AFTER THE COUP
More questions than answers

Rural voters more accepting of coup, but are harshly critical
of failure to honour pledges

 

Six months after the coup, frustration against the interim
government is growing, particularly from disgruntled
villagers. A return to normal democracy may have to be postponed.

Whether voting down any forthcoming constitutional referendum,
or returning Thaksin-style leadership to Bangkok, community
leaders tell The Nation they are becoming pre-disposed to
object to any politicians whose character or initiatives are
tied to the current interim government.

"I have no idea what the government is up to," says Suwat
Jaiwong [a pseudonym] of Chiang Mai's Jomthong district. "They
have no policies or initiatives for the rural sector that I'm
aware of."

Suwat says contrary to anything that may have been said to
justify the coup, farmers in his region feel the Surayud
administration has little interest in doing anything other
than maintaining an appearance of a government hard at work.

"The economy is stagnant, budgets to support the farming
sector and local infrastructure projects have disappeared, and
now we are facing what looks to be a very tough dry season
with not a word from the government about relief projects."

Such frustration is nationwide right now, says leading
political scientist Anek Laothamatas. He points out that the
Council for National Security's failure to build its promised
reconciliation bridge to surmount the political chasm dividing
the interests of rural communities from the urban middle class
may ultimately force a longer postponement of democracy's
return to Thailand.

"This gap has grown ever larger under the CNS, and as a result
will exacerbate Thailand's political instability for the
foreseeable future," says Anek.

"Normally I'm not a doomsday kind of prophet, but now I fear
dark times ahead if the Surayud government continues to fail
the people."

Just over a decade ago, his

landmark book "Song Nakara Prachathiptai" (The Tale of Two
Democracies) vividly outlined what is now widely accepted as
the root cause of instability in Thai democracy. Governments
are elected by the rural majority only to be thrown out by the
urban minority via protests and scandals.

One of his principal observations was that the rural
electorate was propped up by patronage to local political bosses.

"While this still exists, rural people have become more
independent in formulating political analysis and in asserting
their own agendas," Anek noted.

Political discourses surrounding Thaksin at the end of his
term have really stimulated political debate within the rural
sector.

A Nakhon Rachasima deputy village headwoman, Sompit Jitsukho
[a pseudonym], is illustrative of this shift. Although a
former Thai Rak Thai supporter, Sompit took a wait-and-see
attitude following last September's coup.

"We were willing to accept that maybe Thaksin was corrupt and
had caused the country a lot of problems, but why has he yet
to be charged?" she said.

"Besides, I fail to see why they singled out Thaksin while
almost every other politician is also corrupt."

What's more exasperating, Sompit points out, is how the CNS
and the government have heavily criticised politicians who
lure rural supporters when they are doing the same.

During separate visits by Gen Sonthi Boonyaratgalin and Gen
Surayud Chulanont to her province earlier this month, all
villagers who were willing to participate received Bt80 along
with their round-trip bus ride.

The villagers were also asked to bring crops to demonstrate
their commitment to the sufficiency economy.

"We brought our corn, bananas and a variety of vegetables, but
this was all grown under a community agricultural project
initiated by Thaksin," Sompit said with a chuckle.

"Even though the government preaches sufficiency economy all
the time, we've never been told what it's all about, much less
received any support to practise it."

When the next general election occurs, Anek expects this
growing rural dissatisfaction to yield a much higher
percentage of returning politicians, something the CNS had
hoped to avoid.

"At most, maybe 70 per cent of the old faces made their way
back in previous elections, but we'll probably see more than
80 per cent next time," Anek said.

"Rural folks feel increasingly insulted that the military and
the people in Bangkok overthrew their elected government. They
have concluded that a 'clean' government does not have much to
offer them."

Madamin Madaning from Yala, where the former government had
few friends, says there's now widespread disappointment with
the new regime as well.

Although Surayud generated tremendous support when he openly
apologised to people in the South for the past government's
mishandling of the growing conflict, that's ancient history now.

"It was the best thing I'd ever heard from government people,
but then nothing else happened to improve our lives here.
Bureaucrats are sitting at their desks managing papers. No
real work is being done," he said.

Chon Buri businessman Pipat Patrapornwong echoes the
frustration with the government's inaction. He cannot recall
any policy that the government has announced which has not
been reversed, and complained that the asset investigations
had yet to net any big fish.

"The CNS and the government must be afraid of potential
repercussions against them should Thai Rak Thai return to
power. I suspect the military and Thaksin are negotiating some
kind of deal as we speak," Pipat said.

The government's vacillation right now, Anek warns, is causing
rural people in particular to be less inclined to want
anything to do with those who have been involved with the CNS,
or any constitution that may be put to them for a vote.

"I think the CNS is beginning to realise this, which is why we
should not be surprised to see the departure of Surayud.
Otherwise, there stands a very good chance the CNS will pull
the plug on the whole [constitutional] drafting process," Anek
said.

He said the longer Surayud remained, the more angry the public
would become with his poor leadership. People have already
drawn parallels between Surayud and Chuan Leekpai, the former
Democrat prime minister who suffered a tremendous loss to
Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai Party. Therefore, the longer Surayud
stays in power, the more damage the Democrats will experience
in the next election as their leadership styles are similar,
Anek projects.

"There is no question that people in the villages are still
yearning for the days when Thaksin steered the country. What's
interesting is that the urban middle class will probably start
to feel the same way.

"To fight populism, we need more statesman-like politicians to
create a paradigm shift. The rural sector has been pushed into
a disadvantaged position for so long by policies biased
towards the urban sector. It's time the villagers got
compensated, not by handouts but by what I call progressive
welfarism, and became a part of the middle class."

Nantiya Tangwisutijit

The Nation


______________
Dr. Justin McDaniel
Dept. of Religious Studies
2617 Humanities Building
University of California, Riverside
Riverside, CA 92521
951-827-4530
justinm at ucr.edu