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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN lang=EN-US
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p>I strongly recommend this
article by Professor Pasuk for its deep insights into the
contemporary Thai political-economy and Thai politics in the wake of the
coup of 2006.</o:p></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN lang=EN-US
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN lang=EN-US
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p>Biff (Charles
Keyes)</o:p></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN lang=EN-US
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=Section1>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN lang=EN-US
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">From <A
href="http://www.bangkokpost.com/310707_News/31Jul2007_news14.php">http://www.bangkokpost.com/310707_News/31Jul2007_news14.php</A><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN lang=EN-US
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><B><FONT face=Verdana color=maroon size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: maroon; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">FOCUS/
LOOKING FORWARD TO INCLUSIVE POLITICS</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"><BR><BR></SPAN></FONT><B><FONT
face=Verdana color=#990000 size=4><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 13.5pt; COLOR: #990000; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Thai
politics beyond 2006 coup</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT face=Verdana color=black
size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><B><I><FONT
face=Verdana color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-STYLE: italic; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The
most difficult task is how to convince the triple alliance behind the coup to
accept a political system which accommodates everybody
fairly</SPAN></FONT></I></B><FONT face=Verdana color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana"><BR><BR></SPAN></FONT><B><FONT
face=Verdana color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">By
PASUK PHONGPAICHIT</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT face=Verdana color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The keywords of
political debate of the 1990s were terms like civil society, rights and
freedoms, participation, and reform. By contrast, the keywords of the 2000s have
included authoritarianism, exclusion, coup, nominee, security, violence and
reconciliation. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">What has happened,
and where will this lead? <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Whether we like it
or not, Thaksin Shinawatra's premiership (2001-2006) has brought out a deep
division in Thai society. On the one hand, the mass electorate embraced him as
their leader and gave him three unprecedented election victories. On the other
hand, old elite rejected him for being authoritarian, for using political power
to enrich his family and cronies, and for threatening major longstanding
institutions through his headlong pursuit of rapid change.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><B><FONT
face=Verdana color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Thaksin's
populism <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The core of this
division is Mr Thaksin's so-called ''populism.'' It's important to understand
where this came from. When he rose to power, Mr Thaksin showed no real interest
in the masses. He became a popular leader over the following years because of
the demand for such a leader. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">This demand was a
function of the social structure and politicisation. The accompanying diagram
provides a sketch of Thai society in the 2000s. The formal working class-meaning
those with relatively permanent jobs in enterprises of some scale- is very
small, around 8% of the working population. The middle class, meaning anyone
with a white-collar job including bureaucrats, professionals, and managers is
around 15%. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The majority of the
society, about 2/3 of the workforce, are in agriculture or the urban informal
sector-vendors, mom and- pop stores, services, small enterprises, illegal
businesses anda big casual workforce floating between many jobs. People move
back and forth between agriculture and the urban informal sector.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Remittances from
urban informal work subsidise faltering agricultural incomes. Together these two
groups form the ''informal mass.'' They are outside the state legal structure
and social protection, and they dominate the electorate. For this informal mass,
the financial crisis of 1997 was a key moment of politicisation. They did not
cause the crisis but bore much of the impact (especially through unemployment),
and received no relief. The resentment, and resulting politicisation, led to a
wave of demonstrations, such as for debt relief, over 1998-9.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">This wave coincided
with Mr Thaksin's bid for political power. As a wealthy businessman, he was an
unlikely candidate to become a populist leader. But he became more intensely a
populist over the next five years - as he realised the potential of the informal
mass as a base of popular electoral support. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">First, he offered
social policies which were universal in scope (e.g., cheap health care for
everybody) and thus appealed to the informal mass which is usually exempted from
formal welfare schemes. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Second, he made
himself into a public figure which members of the informal mass could imagine
they owned, partly by deliberately distancing himself from old elite of
bureaucrats, politicians, and intellectuals. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Third, he claimed
that he was the mechanism which translated the will of the people into action by
the state, overriding democratic principles, judicial process and the rule-of
law on grounds that these principles had never benefited the ordinary people.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><B><FONT
face=Verdana color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The
2006 coup <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Mr Thaksin had
politicised the gaping division in Thai society - between the urban elite and
the great informal mass - which had been developing over the past half century
of development. The leaders of the coup explicitly cited this division as one of
the four justifications for the coup. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">His populist trend
has frightened the ruling elites, the military and a large segment of the middle
class. These three elements joined hands in the coup of September 2006. The army
provided the force. The ruling elites provided traditional legitimation. The
middle class gave support in public space. Even though the middle class is a
minority, it shapes and dominates the public space in which politics is debated.
In this space, Mr Thaksin was condemned as a demon, and the coup was given a
warm welcome. The crucial point for understanding the participation by the
ruling elites and army is to realise that 2006 is actually one point in a
sequence going back to the coups of 1947, 1957 and 1976.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">In all these four
events, the army and royalists moved in alliance to eject an elected government
on grounds that the elected government was too weak, too strong, too corrupt,
too disrespectful of the monarchy, or too something else.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">In 2006, the army
had a special reason to participate. Mr Thaksin had been trying to bring the
army under his personal control. The old guard in the military and a lot of
their upcoming subordinates resented this. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The army also saw an
opportunity to gain redemption for the army's role in 1992, which had reduced
their status so dramatically. The military had long wanted to regain some of its
former prominence, and the opportunity to overthrow Mr Thaksin gave them the
chance. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The middle class
initially welcomed Mr Thaksin in 2001 as a leader to continue the modernisation
reforms begun in the 1990s. Their support held up for four years, but in 2005,
they turned against him in a violent and highly emotional way.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The middle class had
three fears: first, that it was dangerous to have a state dominated by a clique
of the biggest and rather corrupt business interests; second, that they would
have to pay for Mr Thaksin's populism through increased taxes and the resulting
economic disorder; and third, that Mr Thaksin's formula -an alliance of big
money and big numbers - would make the middle class politically irrelevant.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">What next?
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The best guide is
history. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The alignment of
social forces around the 2006 coup is similar to that around the coup of 1976.
On one side are the ruling elites, army, and urban middle class. On the other is
the rest, with a strong rural weightage. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">In both 1976 and
2006, the coup was a reaction against a political challenge with its centre of
gravity in the countryside. In 1976, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City
w:st="on">Bangkok</st1:City></st1:place> felt threatened by a Maoist insurgency,
a peasant movement, and a student movement which sympathised with rural demands.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">In 2006, Bangkok
again felt threatened, but this time by a political leader and political party
which had built unprecedented support in the rural areas of the North and the
Northeast by delivering a range of populist programmes, and promising more.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">After 1976, the
establishment solution was a formula of ''managed democracy'' with three main
parts: constitutional engineering to produce a system that was democratic in
form but insulated against the risk of mass takeover, military oversight of
political activity from top to bottom and a public campaign for national unity
around the monarchy. All these three parts are seen again in 2006.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The 2007 draft
constitution deliberately sets out to weaken the prime minister and the
political parties. It installs a semi-appointed senate to serve as a
conservative deadweight on the parliament. It aims for a return to the fluid
coalition politics of the 1980s and 1990s. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The Internal
Security Bill gives massive powers to the army chief to oversee politics from
top to bottom. The military has tried desperately to undermine support for Mr
Thaksin using old-fashioned methods of disruption and intimidation.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">This strategy of
''managed democracy'' will not be as easy as in the post 1976 period, because of
the large changes over the intervening thirty years. <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:country-region
w:st="on">Thailand</st1:country-region></st1:place>'s globalised economy is
incompatible with military rule. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The 1985-95 boom
raised income levels, and multiplied the number of interests that are promoted
or protected through political actions. Since the early 1980s, elections have
become established for parliament and later for local government.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">There is a dense
pyramid of electoral organisation extending down from MPs through local
government heads to village canvassers. Many have benefited from electoral
democracy. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The attempt to
''manage democracy'' might fail completely, unless it is flexible. Many people
are unhappy about the 2007 draft constitution, and the attempt to pass the
internal security bill. Civil society groups have opposed the current army
chief's ambitions to become the next prime minister. Many in the informal mass
feel Mr Thaksin and TRT have been martyred. These resentments can be explosive.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><B><FONT
face=Verdana color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">From
exclusion to inclusion <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></B></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Mr Thaksin's
populism, the coup and ''managed democracy'' are all strategies to exclude
opponents from the democratic process. Mr Thaksin hijacked the constitution in
order to neutralise opponents to his political ambitions. The coup tore up the
constitution in order to undermine Mr Thaksin's massive electoral support. The
2007 constitution is written with the single-minded aim to prevent the return of
Mr Thaksin and the social forces he has come to represent.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Politics will only
become stable when the political system reflects and accommodates all the
important social forces and political aspirations in the society.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Competitive
strategies of exclusion will only add to social division and political tension.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">Democracy succeeds
in societies where enough of the major social forces come to realise that
elections, parliaments and public debate (for all their messy faults) are better
ways to resolve the conflicts in society than power, repression, exclusion and
violence. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">In such societies,
everyone agrees to accept a set of rules and institutions, and to play within
them, rather than trying to subvert the rules or tear them up at the first
opportunity. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The first step
towards such a stable system has to be an inclusive procedure for writing the
rules. Whatever faults the resulting charter had, the 1997 process at least was
an attempt at such an inclusive procedure. The 2007 process was not and as such
will inevitably be a false start. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><FONT face=Verdana
color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">It is time to aim
for an inclusive politics. Perhaps the most difficult task in Thai politics now
is how to convince the triple alliance behind the coup of 2006 to accept a
political system which accommodates everybody fairly.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><I><FONT
face=Verdana color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-STYLE: italic; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">The
article is based on the Supha Sirimanond Memorial Lecture delivered at the
Political Economy Centre, Chulalongkorn University on July 25, 2007.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></I></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV></BODY></HTML>